Riley Saxon
By Riley Saxon
What do OU and Texas’ departures mean for College Basketball?
What started out as an absurd-sounding rumor quickly became an astounding reality: Oklahoma and Texas will likely leave the Big 12 for the SEC. This is probably only the start of a major shift in conference alignment: The Big 12 will not stick with only 8 teams, but whether they expand or contract is anybody’s guess. This week, College Hoops Breakdown looks at how the Big 12’s decision could shift the college basketball landscape.
Scenario 1: Big 12 Contraction
This is the scenario most people see playing out: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, and Texas Tech all find new homes, the other four schools scramble to piggyback to another conference with their Big 12 brethren, and the Big 12 folds. This naturally leads into the belief that there will be 4 super conferences of 16 teams each. There is a lot of intrigue here, especially with some of the potential fits with schools and their new conferences. Most people have Kansas (and usually Iowa State) to the B1G and West Virginia (and Notre Dame) to the ACC, with a variety of the rest of the schools going to the Pac 12 and the American.
The hardest part of placing these teams as a college basketball fan is all the outside factors that have (more) sway: football from the sports side and university presidents, among others, on the academic side. Every PAC 12 school, for example, is classified as an “R1: Doctoral University.” These are universities that employ a lot of researchers and designate a multitude of resources to the research. Most of the current Big 12 schools are designated as R1 schools, with the exceptions of Baylor and TCU (two schools often sent to the PAC 12 in fan realignment proposals). Does the R1 designation matter that much to the university presidents and conferences? It’s hard to say, especially when more teams could mean more money for every school. On the sports side, Pac 12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff did say the conference would be dumb to not listen to schools who wanted to join in the wake of the conference shakeup.
For our money’s worth, if the Big 12 contracts and teams go elsewhere, here’s what we’d love to see:
- Kansas + Baylor to the B1G Conference: Keep the national powers together and make the B1G the undisputed best basketball conference (until tournament time, at least).
- West Virginia + Cincinnati to the ACC: Notre Dame will likely stay independent in football, so Cincinnati represents a strong option regionally and in the big 2 sports (although much like their entrance into the Big East, it might be rough at first). Both schools’ proximity to the rest of ACC is a big plus.
- Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, Kansas St and Iowa St. to the PAC 12: These 4 provide 4 different states/markets for the PAC 12, are all R1 Research Universities, and could easily be split into the North and South regions in Football.
- TCU back to the Mountain West or the American: It’s a step down for the Horned Frogs, but not a huge fall for the school that has been a Power 6 school for less than a decade.
Scenario 2: Big 12 Expansion
Scenario 2 has also been mentioned quite a bit. After the previous conference realignment dropped the Big 12 to 10 teams, getting back to 12 teams would be the top priority. Boise State, BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, San Diego State, Houston, Colorado State and even Gonzaga have been thrown around as potential adds.
If the Big 12 takes this route, they likely could choose from the cream of the crop from mid-majors. To see it played out:
Cincinnati and Houston leave the American to go to the Big 12, Boise State leaves the Mountain West, and BYU leaves the WCC. The football pedigree of these four is strong enough, especially with the boost the schools would get from being in a “Power 5” conference.
This would cripple the American and weaken the WCC, so imagine if the Big 12 got super creative and decided to be a 12 team conference in football, but a 14 team conference in basketball: Poach Gonzaga and St. Mary’s from the WCC, and the Big 12 could keep a balanced football schedule (with divisions to capitalize on that sweet sweet championship game money) and easily replace the sting basketball-wise from OU and Texas’ departure. It likely won’t happen, but if College Hoops Breakdown was Big 12 Commish, that’s where we’d be headed.
Scenario 3: Big 12 Stays Put
In the unlikeliest scenario, the Big 12 adds no schools and sticks to 8 teams. This decision wouldn’t hurt the Big 12 as some may think in the realm of basketball: Kansas and Baylor are national powers, and West Virginia and Texas Tech are perennial Top 25 teams. Oklahoma State might have the number one pick in the upcoming draft, and TCU, Iowa St and Kansas St should be improved over the next several years. It’s definitely less than ideal from a football perspective, but from a Men’s Basketball standpoint, the league would still hold a lot of intrigue. Scheduling would also be an interesting aspect of this scenario, as the conference could realistically have each team play each other three times (21 game schedule). Financially it won’t be great, but if Baylor and Kansas (and West Virginia and Texas Tech) continue to be great, the Big 12 could survive as a basketball conference with just 8 teams.
Bruin Bias
In talking with Andy Katz recently, Cody Riley mentioned potentially playing the high-low game with Myles Johnson during the upcoming season. Many Bruin fans clamored for Jalen Hill and Riley to get playing time together at the end of the 2020 season and start of the 2021 campaign, but the two rarely played together (especially with the season shut down and Hill’s retirement from basketball).
Riley and Johnson playing together is an intriguing duo. While not at Thomas Welsh levels, Riley can step out and consistently hit the midrange, plus he is a strong passer. Defensively, he might have to guard quicker players, but Riley performed well enough at times when tasked with it during switches last year. With so many pieces and a full offseason, Cronin will likely play a lot of mix-and-matching to start the year.
Even if the two don’t play together, however, Johnson will have a positive impact on Riley’s game. Hill played in 14 games last year, and in those games Riley saw a slight uptick in points per game, averaged more than a rebound per game and averaged fewer turnovers.
The most impactful stat, however, was fouls. In the 17 games Riley played without Hill active, Riley fouled out 5 times, and had four fouls three other times. In the 14 games with Hill active, Riley had four fouls three times, but did not foul out in any game. Riley was able to be more aggressive as a result (the rebounding numbers + 8 steals in the 14 Hill games versus 3 steals in the 17 without him).
Johnson’s impact will be huge for the Bruins, but the payoff for Riley shouldn’t be overlooked, even if they aren’t on the court at the same time.
Countdown to the 2021-2022 College Basketball Season: 106 Days.
College Hoops Breakdown appears twice a month through the summer at JoeTorosian.com
Riley Saxon can be reached at:
Email: rileymsaxon@gmail.com
Twitter: @CHoopsBreakdown
